World at risk of bird flu pandemic, ill-prepared to handle it — WHO

The world is at great risk of a new pandemic of deadly bird flu, but is ill-prepared to handle it, a top World Health Organization official said at an international conference here.

'It's a very difficult issue ... where there's been a crescendo to the present situation and where incomplete understanding of the risk factor could lead to a global pandemic,' said David Heymann, who heads WHO's communicable diseases section.

'We can say the risk is great, but we cannot quantify it,' he told Agence France-Presse during the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene's annual meeting.

'The world is not prepared to handle it,' he said.

He told experts at the gathering the flu vaccine's current production capacity of 300 mln doses was far short of what is needed, and that the vaccine cannot be stockpiled.

Public health officials and vaccine manufacturers were to convene in Geneva, Switzerland, this week to plan for the eventuality of a pandemic.

Fears of a worldwide outbreak have been heightened by recent cases of avian flu in Thailand and Vietnam, where the disease has killed 32 people so far this year.

The strain, known as H5N1 led to the culling of millions of poultry throughout Southeast Asia.

The discovery of infected ducks and migratory birds is further cause for concern, Heymann said.

On the other hand, he said Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was far less likely to make a comeback after a 2002-2003 outbreak that killed hundreds of people, most of them in Asia.

'We know that this outbreak was contained,' he told the Miami conference.

Agence France Presse
November 8, 2004